USDA anticipates a 10 % reduction in EU pork exports in 2023.

Forecasts for global meat trade in 2023 are mixed. While chicken meat is expected to see an increase in gains, beef will remain stable and pork will suffer a decline for the second year in a row, according to the USDA in its latest report on world livestock and poultry markets and trade.

Pork sector

For pork, the USDA indicates that world pork production in 2023 will remain virtually unchanged from the previous year at 114.3 million tonnes.

Pork production in the European Union is expected to decrease by 3 % to 21.8 million tonnes. Declining pig inventories and weaker producer margins due to rising input costs will continue to affect EU pork production.

As for world exports, they are forecast to reach 10.6 million tonnes in 2023, a decrease of 3 % compared to the previous year.

EU exports will decrease by 10% due to the loss of price competitiveness of pork, while exports from Canada are forecast to be 4% lower due to the closure of slaughter facilities and relatively high feed prices.

On the other hand, exports from Brazil are expected to increase by 5 % due to higher shipments to Chile and China, while exports from China are forecast higher due to the relaxation of border controls in Japan and Hong Kong.

Beef sector

World beef production in 2023 is forecast to remain virtually unchanged from the previous year, reaching 59.1 million tonnes. This forecast is due to declining production in the United States, which will be offset by increased production in Australia, Brazil, China and India.

As for world beef exports, they are forecast to increase slightly in 2023 to 12.1 million tonnes, due to growth in Brazil, Australia and India, which will offset lower exports from the United States.

Australia will also increase its exports by 13% due to higher supply and lower carcass prices, boosting shipments to East Asia and North America.

Poultry meat sector

Global poultry meat production is expected to increase by 1% during 2023, reaching 103.4 million tonnes. This is thanks to earnings momentum in Brazil, the United States, Thailand, Mexico and Turkey.

Despite high feed prices, lower maize and soybean prices in 2023 are forecast to boost production in most countries.

In terms of global exports, they will increase by 1 % in 2023, reaching 13.7 million tonnes, thanks to gains from several suppliers. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, will see the biggest increase at 7%, reaching a record 4.8 million tonnes.

Ukraine, Turkey and Thailand will also see gains, while EU exports are forecast to decline due to highly pathogenic avian influenza restrictions and lower price competitiveness.